Posted on: May 30, 2022, 01:03h.
Last updated on: May 29, 2022, 06:59h.
Former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) are the 2024 betting front-runners on PredictIt. The latest political odds have DeSantis neck-and-neck with the most powerful force in the Republican Party for the first time ever.
PredictIt’s market asking who will win the 2024 US presidential election has DeSantis and Trump tied for the best odds. Their shares are both trading at 28 cents. President Joe Biden is next at 23 cents, with VP Kamala Harris fourth at 10 cents and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg rounding out the top five at seven cents.
The Florida governor’s stock is rising. Less than 90 days ago, DeSantis’ 2024 shares were trading around 20-22 cents. Trump has been as high as 30 cents.
PredictIt is an online political betting exchange that allows bettors to purchase up to $850 in shares in each market. If the outcome goes in the bettor’s favor, each share is redeemed at $1. PredictIt charges a 10% commission on profits, plus a 5% withdrawal fee.
Trump Likely to Punch GOP Ticket
Assuming he runs, and all signs suggest he will, the 45th president will likely be the Republican Party’s nominee to challenge Biden’s reelection. But bettors say the Trump-Biden rematch will turn out different the second time around.
Along with Trump being the betting front-runner on PredictIt, on Smarkets — another online betting exchange — the billionaire is the clear favorite. The peer-to-peer wagering platform currently gives Trump a 26.3% of winning in two years.
Donald Trump has now hit an all-time high mark on the Smarkets exchange and is pulling away as the clear favorite to win the 2024 election,” Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets’ head of political markets, told Casino.org. “Polls continue to place him way ahead of any other Republican and Smarkets prices rate him a 70% chance to run again.”
But unlike PredictIt where DeSantis’ 2024 odds are essentially the same as Trump’s, it’s Biden who has the next-best chance on the exchange at 15.2%. DeSantis is third at 13.5%.
“Biden’s chances are rated incredibly lowly for a sitting president, with the markets giving him only around a one-in-six chance of reelection. One-time favorite Kamala Harris is faring even worse, given just a 6% chance of a promotion to the top job in 2024,” Shaddick added.
Of course, much can change between now and November 5, 2024. But there are less than 900 days before Americans will determine the 2024 outcome.
What Polls Say
Biden’s job approval numbers continue to slide, as the US economy rattles amid soaring inflation, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and an ongoing pandemic. Nearly 55% of Americans disapprove of the president’s performance according to Real Clear Politics’ average of the 11 polls on the matter conducted this month.
As for favorability, RCP polling averages suggest that Americans don’t much like any of the 2024 candidates. The pollsters say 52% of likely voters find Biden unfavorable, while almost 51% find Trump unfavorable.
More than half of those polled also expressed unfavorable attitudes towards Harris. RCP says there is inadequate polling so far on DeSantis’ reputation with voters.